The “In Crowd” Paradigm

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The theme of the Phoenix Republic is about decision making in the face of adversity and about one’s perception of the world.  Most Americans live more or less normal lives and progress through their day by doing routine activities.  There is comfort in having a stable environment, and I believe that most of us are willing to give up quite a lot to maintain a comfortable status-quo existence.  We go to work and pay our bills, and do our best for our families and friends.  We all hope for something better and do our best to avoid any of life’s pit-falls, but for good or ill, we live our lives within defined parameters that for the most part, make us feel reasonably safe.

In the novel, my characters, Kate, Megan & Annie, like most Americans, are living normal lives.  The crux of the story is about what choices they make when the course of events destroys the status-quo and their familiar routine is forever altered.  Like us, my characters have a reality-bias that colors their perceptions about what is happening to the world around them.

As I read news stories these days, I find that more and more, I am seeing the elements of a H.W. Bush’s “New World Order” fall into place.  Reading these articles I wonder if I am reading more into a story than there is or am I seeing a glimpse of what is to come?  I would like to think that I’m clever enough to accept my “reality-bias” and move on to judge what I am reading on its merits, but we are all only human.  Probably the best one can hope for is to be awake enough that one is able to recognize disaster before it visits tragedy upon us.  No one wants to be the tourist on that beach in Sumatra in 2004, who actually went to out onto the beach when the sea receded just ahead of the tsunami.  It’s a perfect example of reality-bias.  Tragically, so many of those lost that day just could not imagine what was coming.

Is it possible that so many of our politicians, like the tourists on that beach, are busy wondering why the sea (in this case, our economy) is behaving out of character?  It’s easy to look at the Ivy League credentials on the resumes of today’s elites from the political – industrial complex, and think that they surely understand the scope of our problems and will be able to fix them.  Today’s culture all but demands that we trust the so-called experts, regardless of what our own intuition may be telling us.  Furthermore, part of what seems to come with an Ivy League education and a progressive world view is a notion held by our leaders in government and those leading major corporate entities, that they know what is best for everyone.  In the view of many of these self-appointed elites, the average American is just too dumb to manage their own lives.

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Regardless of the paradigm popular culture presents, that the primary political battle today is between Republicans and Democrats, the real battle is actually between Statists, (Authoritarians if you like) and the Freedom movement, (Libertarians).  Progressives in both parties may quarrel on the surface about any number of issues, but it is becoming more and more apparent both of the GOP and DNC are about maintaining the status quo.  Parties are made up of human beings, and like any human being, they want to maintain their power at any cost.  Do you ever wonder that election after election after election, nothing really changes?  There is a reason for that.  The reason is that neither party really represents average hard working men and women.  While I am sure that they care to some extent, they are more concerned with winning the next election than doing what is right for the country.  They are more concerned with their party staying in control and paying off their supporters than they are with making smart decision for Americans.

Remember that arrogance I referred to earlier?  Many of our leaders today, in and outside of government simply feel that they are just too brilliant to ever risk the American people losing the benefit of their genius should they be defeated for doing what is right over what is popular.  This kind of thinking justifies all sorts of compromises and makes it all but inevitable that disaster will strike.

As the battle over the continuing resolution rages over whether or not to exclude Obama-care from funding, it is more than obvious that the GOP establishment is working hand in glove with Democrats to destroy anyone who opposed the status-quo.  Senator Ted Cruz of Texas along with Senator Mike Lee and a few others realize that America cannot survive unlimited spending.  We cannot retain our freedom if our rights are regulated, (for our own good, of course), more and more every year.  These brave men and women are making a stand and as a result the establishment politicians, down on that beach, are outraged.  How dare these people take it upon themselves, they say, to go against the collective wisdom of their elders?  It’s becoming obvious that the establishment power players in both parties enjoy their perks and are willing to destroy their own colleagues to maintain their power.  This is not a new story, but I think that it is becoming a more visible one.  Hopefully Americans understand what is happening and make political decisions accordingly.

Sara Palin said: “We’re now, once again, subjected to the “anonymous sources” backstabbing game.  The Capitol Hill cowards are rushing to anonymously denounce Senator Cruz to any reporter with a pad and pen.”

The question in Phoenix Republic and for each of us is what decisions do we want to make?  Do we go down to the beach, believing what we are told, that the economy is recovering?  Or do we make our own decisions based on what we see before us.  Already businesses are cutting hours for their employees to get around Obama-care.  Americans, who are barely making it now, will soon face the ominous reality that Obama-care is making health care completely unaffordable. If you aren’t in one of the elite groups favored by the Political – Industrial Complex, or on the staff of a congressman who are exempted from this law you will be left to either pay more or do without.

Most of our political leaders in both parties are on the beach trying to figure out where the sea went.  Mr. Bush and now Mr. Obama have created trillions of dollars out of thin air to try and forestall economic disaster.  Perhaps they hope that they can regain people’s trust and get us all spending again.  Possibly Americans borrowing and consuming will reignite America’s economic engine and lead to job creation, but I believe that the truth is that they are just out of their depth.

When I was a senior in high school, in 1979 – the United States had faced a similar, although much less difficult economic challenge.  We had Stagflation…  Wages were not rising but goods and services were.  There were long gas lines and I recall constantly having to help to change prices on food at the grocery store where I worked as a checker.  Fed Chair, Paul Volcker raised interest rates to battle out of control inflation.  He was able to get away with this action because in the 1979 America was vastly stronger than it is today.  Americans were nowhere nearly as in debt.  Today, even without considering United States Government debt, Ben Bernanke is faced with the fact that private sector debt-to-GDP is dramatically higher today than in 1979.  With both government and private debt this out of control, rising interest rates would be very, very painful.  It is an open question if the government would survive this kind of inflation.  All that the Political – Industrial Complex can hope for is that they can continue to increase the quantity of money and pray that Americans are too asleep to notice dramatically rising prices that are vastly reducing purchasing power of our debased currency.

Personally, my plan, as Sara Palin would say, to “Woman up, stand my ground, and fight like a girl!”

Additional Reading

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-22/guest-post-gold-and-monetary-inflation-prospects

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/09/20/unemployment-rose-in-these-states-not-ready

The Syrian Intervention Paradigm

As another weekend winds down I find myself looking ahead to the new week ahead.  For next week, congress will be back in Washington DC and sadly, President Obama is still trying to make the case for a strike against Syria to defend is ego after the anointed one failed to make anyone in the Middle East take him seriously.  It looks like he will speak to the nation in the next couple of days.  I wonder what can be said to justify the terrible risk that the President wishes to take.  No doubt Mr. Obama will talk about human suffering.  I am in fact sympathetic to that argument.  At least I would be sympathetic to that argument if it happened prior to the brutal killings of over one-hundred-thousand people by other means.  Is a chemical attack terrible?  Of course, but so are the numerous gruesome deaths inflicted on innocent civilians by both sides since this crisis began.  This is not an easy situation regardless of how things play out.  I just know that economically, the United States is in no position to be burning through our make-believe cash for a risky adventure in Syria.

While I am hopeful that the US will not launch a strike, the fact that the establishment GOP and the Democrats seem to be hell bent on such action make it seem likely.  There is a fair amount of resistance to such action in congress and from the American public but only time will tell if cooler heads will prevail.  Responsiveness to the public will has not been all that evident in Washington D.C.  If this strike does happen, be sure to make note how your representative voted.  It is our job to hold them accountable.  The impacts could be unpredictable.

As usual, Stratfor does their usual amazing job of analyzing the economic costs.  What is interesting in the video analysis however is that while Stratfor does a solid job talking to the immediate concrete repercussions, they didn’t really cover the possible unforeseen impacts that are at the very least possible, if not likely.  Sure it’s obvious that the stock market and the price of oil would be impacted, but what happens if things spiral out of control.   In other words what happens when Iran, Russia, or even China respond to a US led attack with some form of retribution?  Does such an event make a serious economic impact more or less likely to occur?  Does the war escalating to include Israel make the world more or less stable?  As I recall the economy is really fragile.  How much pressure would it take to really put the kibosh to the so-called recovery?Warfare is never a sure thing.

Phoenix Republic is a fictional story based on a economic collapse.  Unfortunately, In today’s world verisimilitude for the story is sadly, far to easy to achieve.

Don’t Worry, All is Well, Until it Isn’t

 

The breakdown of a society begins slowly at first but picks up speed as everyday life deteriorates.  Tyranny often begins when free citizens willingly give up their freedom to achieve security.  Visitors to Hitler’s Germany in the 1930’s, prior to World War II, often related tales of how exciting and marvelous Berlin was under the Nazis.  In reading Erick Lawson’s book, In the Garden of Beasts, United States Ambassador, William Edward Dodd’s daughter, Martha Dodd went on and on about how wonderful she thought Germany was at the time.  She was completely blind to the darkness building in people, especially government people, who surrounded her.  If you have Netflix, and like older films, take a look at the 1980’s mini-series, Winds of War, by Herman Wouk.

From a historical perspective, life pretty much goes on normally if you consider your daily experiences from a narrow enough perspective.  It is only when we take a step back that we notice the changes.  In January of 2001, who would have thought that we would have to submit to being felt up or have to get nude scans by government employees just to get on an airplane?  Would you have accepted it if President Clinton suggested a program where the NSA would be capturing every telephone or electronic communication in a massive data-center?  Probably, you wouldn’t.  Although examples of government abuse have always been in the news, would you have been stunned then if you learned that the Federal Government was actively going after political opponents with the IRS to sway an election?  Richard Nixon did that of course, but as I recall he was forced from office in disgrace.  Now a couple of decades later our current president tells us that even worse behavior a “Phony Scandal.”

My point is that if one’s culture degrades slowly enough, like the frog in the being slowly cooked in a pot of water, its only human nature to dismiss behavior that is only incrementally more outrageous than what we have become accustomed to.  The danger that we face is that if things deteriorate too far, the gradual decline can suddenly become a very rapid collapse of our culture.  In Phoenix Republic, my characters live though just such a transition.  At first, things are more or less normal.  The world has problems, but from the point of view of people living in the fictional world of my novel, it has always had problems and always would.  In a matter of weeks, the fictional world of the novel moves past the mundane and into an unprecedented crisis.  People are forced to deal with an unthinkable dissaster.

In preparing to write Phoenix Republic.  I began to take notes from news stories that were actually taking place.  Although fictionalized for the novel, many of the events in Phoenix Republic really did take place in real life.  Yesterday, while at work I thought about how crazy things are in the news these days.  It still gets me when something insane is reported.  I think, wow, that would be a good one to write about – to point out where we are on the road to Gomorrah.  My thought is that the key to surviving drastic upheavals in culture, is to be awake enough to recognize when the gradual change is about to go viral.

Today we see the EPA telling people that are nowhere near water that their property is a wetland.  We see voter fraud cases dropped by the Justice Department regardless that those cases were all but won, while just recently Mr. Holder’s Justice Department decided to go after the state of Texas for voter ID laws.  We see our administration threaten war in Syria, with or without congressional approval, while being outraged by the former progressive president doing the same thing with approval.  We see citizens protesting government intrusion by the NSA, IRS, and other agencies, but could care less that even worse intrusions happen under the political party they support.  As in my novel it appears that that the world is heating up.   Not sure when things go over that proverbial cliff, but I do believe there is too much in our world that is too broken in too many places.

Monsters Amongst Us

Have you ever read a news story and shake your head and wonder how something so terrible could happen?  Let’s be honest, human beings have a great propensity for unspeakable violence.  Genghis Khan killed entire villages if they did not immediately surrender to him.  In Rwanda it is estimated that at least five-hundred-thousand people were murdered because they were from the wrong tribe.  Today in the Middle East, the genocide against Christians is sickening.  On the other hand, human beings also have an amazing ability to sacrifice for others, or for the good of the cause.  Many men willingly stepped aside so that women and kids could have a chance to survive aboard the Titanic.  Every day first responders rush into harm’s way as they did on 9/11 at the World Trade Center.

In Phoenix Republic my characters, Kate, Megan, & Annie are witness to the result of an American culture which struggles to cope with disaster.  In writing this story, I constantly had in mind what motivates Americans.  I don’t know about you, but in my experience most of us take an action to achieve something we want or we react to actions taken by others.  One’s culture influences one’s behavior and shapes what we consider to be reasonable, right?  What happens when what is right or wrong don’t really matter?

All of this is obvious, right?  The past couple of days however I have been thinking about some of the more noteworthy crimes that have been in the news of late.  I wonder what goes through a criminal’s mind as they commit the most horrific atrocities.  The cases I am referring to have all taken place in the United States and were committed by Americans.  In one instance in Georgia a seventeen year old young man shot an infant in his stroller because the mom didn’t have any money for him to steal.  In another case from 2007, a college couple was car-jacked in Tennessee and beaten, raped, and tortured to death in a manner that Saddam Hussein would have difficulty topping.  More recently, any but the most completely oblivious of us are familiar with the young Australian man that was brutally gunned down because some teenagers were bored.  Notice all of these locations were not in places like Washington DC, New York City, or Chicago where the death rate rivals war zones in the Middle East.  While I’m well aware that Americans have done some truly awful things, I don’t really think that I have seen such a general decline in American values amongst youth in the general population.  The truth is that kids in America today are killing people without remorse.  While reporting is much more intense today that doesn’t account for this level of carnage.  According to FBI statistics murders are down in the US, but while overall quantity is diminished, something has and is changing in fabric of America.  We are seeing atrocities like the ones noted above with much more frequency.

To be clear, when referring to values here, I am not referring to whether someone is in church on Sunday, gives to charity, or supports a particular political party, or religious dogma, but rather I am talking about a fundamental empathy for other people.  In the last month, I have seen news story, after news story, after news story, of teenagers and or young adults’ brutally robbing, raping, and killing people.  These people not only were willing to really hurt others, but these animals even go after babies and the elderly with absolutely no remorse or feeling.  Some people in this country are more than willing to inflict horrific evil on others.  My question is how can one be human and commit such evil?

The only answer that I can come up with is that the range of what people are capable of is really wide open.  What it comes down to is how individuals perceive life, justice, and how they were taught to value or not value human life.  In other words, our culture is what informs a society’s humanity.  I happen to believe that we have at least two cultures in this country.  One culture values the individual and personal responsibility and the other culture values the needs of the collective over the needs of individuals.  When the collective is the important factor, individual crimes become secondary to the need of the collective to push an agenda.  We hear about “Social Justice” not “Justice.”  We are told that we must understand the historical context and the upbringing of criminals.  Who the victim and perpetrator are matter more than blind justice.  Sadly, media and the political elite in America today are more concerned with obtaining power and influence, and of course, making money than with the need to uphold what used to be our core values.  We hand out trophies to everyone regardless of achievement and tell our children that they should feel good about themselves regardless of their actions.  Yes, our kids are entitled to anything they want, they think.   If they happen to be bored, then taking a young man’s life is just something they deserve to get to do.

Should we be surprised then that far too high of a percentage of these kids grow up to be monsters.  In 1930’s Germany, Adolph Hitler prompted much of the same value sets that we see valued by pop-culture today.  I surmise that it is a handy thing to devalue individual worth, God, and moral behavior if you intend to make an all-powerful state into God and the final arbiter of morality.  I would posit that the same darkness of the soul that allowed Germans to watch passively as Hitler took six-million Jewish German citizens from their homes to be murdered is the same darkness that we see coming to a boil around us.  In Phoenix Republic, the much of the story puts on display what it might look and feel like to the average person what evil might look like if good people do not stand up for what is right.  Like us, my characters have to take that look in the mirror and commit as individuals to do the right thing by others.  Media and politics is a powerful influence in our culture, but it is a reflection of society.  The next election will not solve the nation’s problems.  Only we can do that one person, one family, one community at a time.

Additional Reading:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/08/30/justice-teen-found-guilty-of-shooting-13-month-old-baby-in-the-face-as-his-mother-watched-in-horror/

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/08/13/the-gruesome-story-of-a-murdered-tennessee-couple-you-may-have-never-heard-about-but-that-you-will-never-forget/

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/08/19/student-randomly-shot-dead-by-gang-of-teens-just-for-the-fun-of-it-police-say/

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/09/02/elderly-buddhist-monk-savagely-beaten-and-left-for-dead-in-oklahoma/

http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2013/january/early-2012-crime-statistics

Hope and Change, a Fabian Perspective

As Americans watch the breathless news coverage of Mr. Obama’s impending attack on Syria, it occurs to me that regardless of pundits on television debating endlessly about what the possible goals Mr. Obama hopes to accomplish through military action, he cannot control the reaction to such an attack.  It could well be that missiles will fly in the next day or two and nothing much will change.  Mr. Obama can claim that he is a serious man that means what he says, regardless that the facts on the ground will remain largely unchanged.  Perhaps his strike will degrade Bashar Al-Asad’s military capability.  What is also possible, if not probable, is that Mr. Obama will provide the excuse Islamist extremists in the Middle East have been waiting for.  Iran has stated for years that they wish to eliminate Israel from the face of the earth.  The Muslim Brotherhood, who Mr. Obama has supported at every turn, likewise has a similar goal.

This week Iran and Syria have both pledged to attack Tel-Aviv, Israel if the United States should attack Syria.  Russia, and as of yesterday, China have both warned of serious consequences if Mr. Obama insists on backing up his foolish pronouncements of a so-called red-line with military force.  Although progressives have a hard time accepting it, these nations do not care about American political calculations.  They are only concerned with obtaining power and maintaining their strategic interests.  Is it tragic that hundreds of thousands of people have been butchered by both sides in the Syrian Civil War?  Yes.  Would it be preferable if the United States could provide a stabilizing influence on the region?  Yes.  Unfortunately, there is little that the US can do to help any innocent victims living in Syria.  America has squandered any credibility it may have once had on the altar of American domestic politics.  Put simply, Middle Eastern leaders know well that American leaders cannot be trusted.

One might simply be tempted to believe that the President and his administration are just naïve.  I don’t think so, however.  Regardless of strongly disagreeing with his policies, I believe these people may be arrogant, but they are far from stupid.  If that is so, why would educated and experienced people make such poor decisions?  There is very little to be gained by the United States from military action in Syria, so why allow the US to be backed into this corner?  It is inexplicable unless there is another goal all together.

What if there is an upside the President and his progressive supporters would like to achieve?  What goal might progressives in the United States and around the world have that would benefit from such action?  To answer this, consider our world from a very macro point of view.  Progressives and Islamists too, for that matter, clearly would like the world to be re-ordered.  While these groups may not agree with each other on what the world should look like, they do agree that “capitalism” is the root of all evil in the world.  The problem from their point of view is how to destroy capitalism so that they can replace it with their system of choice.  As the Fabian Socialist’s Window depicts, (Fabian Socialist Window is a stained glass depiction of a man beating the earth with a hammer.  On the window is a caption: “remold it nearer to the heart’s desire”), the only way to achieve this goal is to create chaos in the world.

Fabian Window

As was the case a century ago, the Fabians almost achieved some of these goals after WWI.  Like today, the status quo, simply didn’t sufficiently meet the needs too many people.  Also, like today, progressives believed the way to overcome the overly class oriented system of the day was to destroy the system and replace it with a “New World Order”.  Like President Obama, President Woodrow Wilson was a committed progressive, and like today, leaders foolishly stumbled into a tragic world conflict that resulted in the deaths of millions.  While I don’t think that progressives want to see people’s lives destroyed, I do believe they are willing to break a few eggs to achieve their utopian vision.  Ask yourself this question:

“Should a terrible war rage across the Middle East, accompanied by the inevitable economic disaster that would go with such a conflict, how willing would you be to accept any proposed solution that would end the destruction?”

In Phoenix Republic, Americans are faced with the fundamental question, what is individual freedom worth?

Additional Resources:

http://www.wnd.com/2013/08/iran-thousands-of-missiles-to-rain-on-israel/

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/199691/Fabian-Society

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2013/08/the-debate-over-intervention-in-syria.html

World War III for Dummies

World War III for Dummies

A key component for war comes from leaders who misjudge their opponent’s intentions and or capabilities.  Take Saddam Hussein, for example.  He simply could not imagine that self-indulgent Americans would be willing to spend the blood and treasure it would require to dislodge him from power.  Today we have leaders who, like Saddam, arrogantly think they are the smartest people in the room.  That would be great except that is just isn’t even close to true.  Arrogant American Progressives from both political parties continually misjudge the world and what wags it.

Only two years ago Progressives in the political elite circles of Washington DC and New York proclaimed how marvelous it was that the so-called Arab Spring was wiping away the brutal dictators of the “Cold War” era.  It was heralded as a triumph of American foreign policy.  George W. Bush, Mr. Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and of course Mr. Obama, along with the progressively minded elite media all support the idea of unlimited democracy in the region.  Bill Kristol even remarked that those who disagreed with this assertion were “overly pessimistic.”  Currently, Mr. Obama is going out of his way to promote the Muslim Brotherhood, regardless of their threatening allies, or committing genocide against the Coptic Christians, who are approximately 10% of the Egyptian population.  Only when the images of these rapes, murders, and the destructions of hundreds of churches did Obama give a tepid admonishment.  For weeks now Washington DC has debated whether or not to cut aid to Egypt.  Now we are hearing from the media how Bashar Al-Asad has crossed Obama’s so-called “red-line” by killing a hundred people or so with a chemical attack.  Seriously?  This monster has killed ninety-thousand people and committed atrocities against countless others, and we are talking about a military response over one hundred more?  Perhaps, it is secretly Obama’s guilt that a chemical attack may well have utilized the disappearing chemical weapons that magically vanished from Iraq.

(Please ignore the convoys of semi-trucks that crossed the Iraq – Syria border on the eve of the Saddam’s fall from power.)

Well, here we are in late 2013 with close to if not already over one hundred thousand people dead across the region.  In Syria, Bashar Al-Asad – backed by the Russians and Iran is brutally murdering civilians in droves.  In Egypt, we have now come full circle, with Hosni Mubarak, out of jail and the Muslim Brotherhood pushed out of their democratically elected posts.  In Egypt, the old alliances are splintering.  Israel and Saudi Arabia, who have been traditional supporters of US Middle East policy, are now promoting the military coup by the Egyptian military.  Turkey and Qatar, on the other hand support the Muslim Brotherhood.  One might recall that Saudi Arabia and Qatar currently host US military bases.

My point, you ask?  My point is that it is my belief that the political class, although too arrogant to ever admit being completely wrong and is deeply misguided in their understanding of the world.  The United States has never exactly been popular in the region, but now we find ourselves to be a laughing stock.  Why should a Middle Eastern leader believe anything the US says?  Washington DC only cares about politics, what party will win the next election, and how political opponents can be discredited.   In this environment, do you think it is likely that leaders from the Middle East are more or less likely to misjudge American intentions?  Recall who the key players are in the Syrian conflict?  Russia, Syria, the USA, are facing off in a bitter civil conflict that is far deeper than whether a dictator will remain in power.  Russia wants access to Syrian ports.  Iran wants to eliminate Israel, and in my opinion, achieve a caliphate.  It will be interesting to see what Obama does here.  Who would bet against him believing he can lob a couple of missiles or implement a no-fly zone with little consequence?  How a horrific world war begins is simple, it starts by accident, because deeply rooted animosity comes to the surface because leaders misjudge each other.

My novel, Phoenix Republic tells a story about three sisters as they come to grips with economic disaster and turmoil overseas that changes everything.  Our ordinary world is so fragile, yet we are often so careless in it’s care.

Additional resources:

http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2013/7/obama-administration-lags-behind-the-curve-on-syria

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/08/26/how-bad-could-syria-get-what-israelis-are-flocking-to-snatch-up-could-be-a-clue/

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/08/24/u-s-attack-would-spark-ball-of-fire-in-whole-middle-east-syrian-official-warns/

The Once and Future Calamity

Phoenix Republic is a story about average people, sisters, overcoming their reality bias and surviving a titanic shift in the economic underpinnings that make modern life possible.  The story is about what it would be like for a normal person to hold on to their faith, to hold on to their ethics when faced with dramatic change to the very fundamentals of the foundation their lives are based upon.  This blog is about relating the novel to every day events.  This week I was intrigued by something called the “Hindenburg Omen.”  What is it exactly?  Well it is basically a set of technical benchmarks that Keith Fitz-Gerald of www.MoneyMorning.com  noted, has predicted every major market inflection point since 1985.   If the omen occurs twice in a 30 day period, it’s up to 90% accurate in predicting market selloffs resulting in at least a 5% correction within 45 days.  Currently, this set of metrics has occurred 5 times in the last 8 trading sessions.  I was sufficiently intrigued to see what articles might be available.   Looking at www.Zerohedge.com I noticed some interesting data points.

People, corporations, and the government at all levels are carrying more debt than they did in 2007.  The Federal government is in fact carrying 60% more debt than it did in 2007.  Interest rates have risen by 80% in only three months and regardless of the media’s pontification, the economy is obviously still in recession.  Stocks are as overvalued today as they in the “Great Depression” or prior to the housing crash in 2008.  As in Phoenix Republic, not only the United States, but the entire world seems to be hanging in the balance, held together by lies, delusion and false promises.  What might be the result when the music stops?

Like the fictional characters in the novel, most of us have a generally optimistic outlook regarding our future.  That is to say we are more or less optimistic until conditions begin to rapidly deteriorate.  As I read through the headlines over the last couple of weeks, I am captivated by the similarities between our current situation and the reality that the Third Century Romans faced.  For them, corruption, over spending, and security pressures caused arrogant leaders to make mistake after mistake as they sought to maintain their power.

Due to political leaders leveraging Rome to maintain their lifestyles they felt entitled to, and as a result of constant attacks by determined enemies, the financial underpinnings of their civilization became untenable.  The Severan emperors continually dealt with increased budget demands by inventing new taxes, debasing the currency, (quantitative easing…), confiscation of property owned by the rich, (paying their fair share…), and eventually selling imperial assets.  As the strained budgets resulted in declining infrastructure within the empire, the military also suffered as increasingly the cash strapped government was forced to begin relying on lesser quality soldiers from outside the empire, (the Barbarians).  As you might expect productive Romans, especially in the provinces, revolted, further weakening the empire.

It is frightening how familiar the story is to our current paradigm.  As Mr. Bernanke announced an end to quantitative easing, what will be the effect on the markets and thus our lives?  Rising interest rates will hit everything from home and car loans to credit card borrowers to people with leveraged investments.   My thought, is just maybe we should all be wide awake and staying frosty as events unfold.

God bless and good luck!

Are the Dominoes of World War Beginning to Fall?

The content of today’s post is quite graphic.  It is important to understand, but important to share, I think.

Tonight I watched a retrospective that looked at commentary and news clips from the last couple of years.   The theme?  The theme was the spreading violence that is overtaking the Middle East as a result of the so called Arab-Spring.  It is amazing that so much horrific violence can take place without the media or western culture in general, taking notice, or really caring.  Is this because of selfishness or racism?  I don’t know, but it is tragic.

In Egypt this weekend churches were burned, people were killed, and children were raped and murdered.  Historically speaking these acts fit a sad and terrifying pattern.  In Phoenix Republic, I wrote a novel about changing times in an attempt to reach an audience that seems not to care that a global conflagration is coming.  While I hesitate to post such a serious topic on my blog which is in essence about a fictional novel, the whole purpose behind the book is to reach people so that their hearts can empathize with others and wake up to what reality is turning into.   I just have a hard time understanding why the Koran being disrespected is treated so differently by the mainstream press than they treat the actual genocide of Christians that appears to have begun the Middle East.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/08/19/nr-gbtv/

Forgien Aid to Egypt – helping or hurting stability?

As the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, nations around the world, including the United States, are debating whether or not to continue to offer aid to Egypt.  Economically Egypt can live without the support of outside contributors, but with the US providing one and a half billion dollars in military aid, is helpful to the Egyptian military in that this money comes in the form of supplies and maintenance aid for US supplied military equipment.  The problem is regardless of whether the US provides assistance to Egypt, little influence is achieved by doing so.  On the other hand, cutting off aid would likely be taken as an insult, thus making it less likely the US can strategically influence Egypt to honor commitments to things the US wants such as respecting Israel’s western border.

Still, with the country in all out chaos, if not outright civil war, one has to wonder if the US is getting a reasonable return for the cash expended.  Regardless of what the Egyptian military wants, the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic militants appear to be committed to pressing a full scale attack, as can be seen in the who sale murder of Christians.  It is my opinion that Islamists promoting political Islam to achieve a caliphate, believe that now is the time to push for this outcome at any cost.  For this reason, there are no good alternatives.  Due to the current administration’s complete mishandling of  this so-called Arab Spring, the world is now a very, very dangerous place.  In Phoenix Republic, the paradigm that has existed since WWII changes suddenly, exacerbating a desperate financial situation.  As was faced by the British following WWI, the world they found themselves in just wasn’t the one they believed they lived in.

An overview, of the financial aid picture in Egypt:

http://shar.es/z1Igf

courtesy of:  http://www.stratfor.com/

Iran and the drive for real power.

While I hardly believe any statistic or claim emanating from Iran, I will say that Iran is quite dedicated to the rapid development of a sophisticated war-making capability.  Iran has been working on missile technology for years.  When you combine that drive along with their unrelenting drive to achieve nuclear weapons, a reasonable person can make some pretty good guesses regarding intentions.  In Phoenix Republic, trouble in the Middle East is yet one more issue affecting characters, Catherine, Megan, & Annie, as they cope with the disaster of their lives and a failing economy.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/08/18/ex-iranian-official-says-his-country-is-ranked-6th-in-the-world-in-missile-production/